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SinedEgroeg  
#1 Posted : Monday, October 13, 2014 4:27:48 PM(UTC)
SinedEgroeg

Joined: 9/5/2014(UTC)
Posts: 24
According to Wiki Answers it is 0.54 for the losing team and 1.63 for the winning team. (doesn't say what league, so must be an overall)

I've just done a bit more research right now and found some relevant statistics about correct scores at Soccer by the Numbers where they found that the most frequent scores for EPL and Serie A are 1-1 and 1-0 (for the home team) and that for Bundesliga the most common score is 1-1 (12.5%) and home team win 2-1 (9.7%) and home team win 1-0 (8.7%). (Data included 5 seasons.)

So according to the above data, I believe the most common scores are 1-1, 1-0 and 2-1. - Now this makes me think that I should pick my correct scores as 1-1 for games considered a close call (rated between 2.00-3.00 decimal odds), 2-1 for favourites with an average attack, and 1-0 for favourites with a below average attack (although those are usually considered close call games by bookmakers).

I know the odds of predicting 7 correct scores in a row are very low, however I would like to find the best bet to go for it as a general rule considering all the data we have. And would also like to obtain a rough idea of what the odds are for this occurrence.

This is particularly interesting to me because for a 20 penny ticket I can win £500,000 if I am the only winner (if there are more winners, then the pot splits equally among the winners). Also if I correctly predict the outcomes but not the scores, I get about £1 back.

Edited by user Monday, October 13, 2014 4:29:14 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Constantin  
#2 Posted : Thursday, November 20, 2014 2:28:42 AM(UTC)
Constantin

Joined: 7/2/2011(UTC)
Posts: 611
Romania
Hey SinedEgroeg,

Using your above data and some large round-ups, hitting 7 correct scores in a row is about 1 in 2,5M-3M.
Anyways, it's still 5 times more likely to hit this streak than it is to win at 6 of 49 lottery (1 in 13,983,816).

BTW, since you are at it, why don't you try to only predict 6 soccer correct scores for a £250,000 prize at Skysports, all for free ?
The contest runs weekly and is called "Super 6", and the chances to predict 6 correct score in a row are only 1 in about 200,000

Good Luck to ya!
thanks 1 user thanked Constantin for this useful post.
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