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Graeme  
#1 Posted : Wednesday, January 14, 2015 6:15:56 AM(UTC)
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Joined: 4/30/2010(UTC)
Posts: 294
Some of you may have heard of the gambler's fallacy. This is when you believe a heads or tails is more likely on the next toss because the other has occurred more than 50% of the time recently. The fallacy is to think that the outcome of any toss depends on the results of previous tosses.

A new study shows that people are very prone to generalizing this fallacy across pretty much all their decisions in many real world situations. For example if a judge last decided the defendant was guilty he is more likely to decide the next defendant is not guilty than the case warrants. Or if an umpire called not out on the last appeal he is more likely (than expected) to give the batsman out on the next appeal. They estimate that this effect accounts for around 5% - 1 in 20 - of decision outcomes.

This means that many high stakes decisions are made for no other reason than to make it different from the last decision, in order to give the impression of applying one's mind and being fair. Or maybe they believe that having possibly made a mistake in one direction making the opposite mistake this time will make things right.

Edited by user Monday, January 19, 2015 7:03:40 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Cut out verbiage

kattboots  
#2 Posted : Sunday, January 18, 2015 5:17:01 PM(UTC)
kattboots

Joined: 12/2/2011(UTC)
Posts: 290
As much as I know in my conscious mind that this thinking is a fallacy, I still find a little devil sitting on my shoulder and whispering in my ear to my subconscious when I have betting decisions to make.

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